The rapid urbanization in China has been associated with a growing hunger for energy consumption and steadily-increasing CO_dos emissions. In this paper, an integrated system dynamics model composed of four sub-models is developed to simulate the urbanization and energy consumption in China from 1998 to 2050. Three scenarios are provided: accelerated economic development, emission reduction constraint, and low-carbon oriented. The result reveals that rapid economic growth and sufficient energy supply will foster China’s urbanization in all three scenarios. Under the low carbon transition scenario, China’s urbanization rate is expected to reach % in 2050, both reducing carbon emissions and promoting eco-friendly development. All three scenarios witness a dramatic growth of residential energy consumption and a steady increase of industrial energy consumption. China still has a long way to achieve the low-carbon transition goal. China should promote renewable resources and energy, pursue a low-carbon lifestyle, and reduce energy intensity over the next few decades.

Inclusion

There is a long and rich history of research exploring the association between energy demand and urbanization 1,2,3 . Energy consumption, and its socioeconomic and environmental impacts, have imposed a critical influence on urban sustainability 1 . At the same time, the effects of urbanization on energy consumption vary across scales and over countries 4,5,6 . China’s dramatic urbanization and the associated energy demand as well as the pressure of CO2 emitted by such energy consumption is a major global scientific issue since this century 7,8,9 . Previous research in China has often focused on a specific field or aspect, such as urbanization theory 10 , urbanization procedure 11 , energy policy 12 , energy growth 13 , CO₂ emission 14 , climate change 15 , and public health 16 .

Program figure modelling regarding urbanization around time constraints during the Asia

Though urban expansion do speed times application 17,18,19 , new motor vehicle strength use is likely to correlate negatively towards urbanization top on account of economies from size 20,21,twenty-two . Such as, a great deal more urbanized portion in the Canada consumed straight down for each and every capita time 23 . At exactly the same time, complete opportunity consumption of rural properties is bigger than compared to metropolitan home, given that over 85% out-of outlying property explore unproductive solid fuel 24 . Based on Customers Studies Program, 275 towns and cities international fool around with hydropower, 189 metropolises explore breeze strength, and you will 184 towns explore solar photovoltaic electricity. At the least a hundred towns fool around with renewable power to get to 70% of electricity, eg Seattle, Oslo, Vancouver, and you can Nairobi. In the usa, 58 locations, together with Atlanta and you will North park, features intentions to changeover to one hundred% tidy and renewable energy. To the established tech and effort shops, it’s likely to get to 100% renewable energy also have international and you will go no carbon emissions by 2025. The global energy generation structure in the 2050 is expected because the less than: solar power photovoltaic (69%), cinch fuel (18%), hydropower (8%), and you can biomass (2%), with opportunity sites battery packs layer 29% off electricity demand. It is detailed that most of planet’s largest dams and you can fuel plants are located in Asia, when you find yourself Yunnan State and Guizhou State contribute 31% off China’s hydropower. The new Jinsha Lake alone enjoys a great nine-peak dam. The fresh fuel from such hydropower was directly sent to Guangdong and Hong kong through the higher-voltage grid. As a result of the numerous hydropower information designed for air conditioning, Guizhou State has already become China’s main analysis center legs. Inside 2018, Fruit Organization situated brand new iCloud study heart when you look at the Guizhou. Pretty much every high It providers out-of China has put up investigation locations into the Guizhou, also Alibaba, Huawei, and you may Asia Cellular.

Urbanization is a non-linear open complex system, with multiple subsystems dynamically interacting with each other 25,26,27 . Dramatic urbanization under energy constraints is challenging for China, which has topped all the countries in population, energy consumption (since 2010), and CO₂ emissions (since 2008) 27 . To systematically examine the causality mechanism between energy consumption and urbanization, the SD (system dynamics) model has been widely used in the domains such as energy consumption 28 , energy policy 29,30 , energy efficiency 31 , carbon emission 32,33 , and energy industry 34,35 . The SD model, Monte Carlo simulation, and Hornberger-Spear-Young (HSY) algorithm were employed to analyze the urbanization patterns with the limit of energy and environmental resources 36 . In addition, the baseline scenario was simulated from 2005 to 2020 using the SD model of urbanization and the energy consumption complex system 28 . The SD model was also developed using the STELLA platform to model the energy consumption and CO₂ emission trends 33 . To dynamically predict future urban development trends under various scenarios has very important scientific values for the policy formulation.